I would characterise 2022 as the year of uncertainty. We began the year with some feelings of optimism as we began to enjoy once again a level of freedom not available to most for more than two years. Indeed, schools were told they no longer needed to follow the rigorous system of controls imposed by the Government as we moved to a "living with COVID" strategy.
However, for many, the problems associated with the pandemic did not subside. High levels of staff and pupil absence continued to present enormous challenges for school leaders. Ministers, however, were determined to get the sector into a mindset of rapid recovery and so launched several initiatives to accelerate the process. Whilst the sector welcomed the additional funding and resources, the expectation to do more in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic added unreasonable pressure to an already weary education workforce.
We saw the introduction of a new government education team towards the end of 2021. The Secretary of State, Nadhim Zahawi, along with Robin Walker as schools minister and Baroness Barran (who would lead on academy accountability) began to engage with the sector at the start of 2022 as the precursor to a White Paper due to be launched in the spring. The White Paper aimed to offer the clarity the sector had been missing in recent years. We also saw the surprise departure of long-standing schools minister Nick Gibb.
At this point, none of us could have imagined what the next twelve months would bring.
As the winter drew to a close, the conflict in Ukraine began to erupt, further exacerbating the energy crisis and contributing to increases in domestic levels of inflation. Having emerged from COVID, the education sector was now facing a new set of fiscal challenges, the extent of which none of us could have foreseen.
By April, the much-anticipated Schools White Paper, along with a Schools Bill, was published, with an ambition to have every school in a “strong trust” by 2030. The sector's reaction to the White Paper could be characterised as lukewarm, in particular towards the arbitrary deadline.
As we entered the final term of the academic year 2021/22, the publication of various surveys and practitioner-led polls continued to highlight the education community's concerns over pay and workload and increasing levels of attrition.
During the summer, things began to unravel as Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s leadership fell into crisis. In the two weeks leading up to the end of term, we had three Secretaries of State for Education in three days. The day before schools broke for the summer recess, school leaders were sent spiralling into panic with the announcement of a teachers' pay award far in excess of any prediction – an increase the Government would not be matching with extra funding. This rendered most governor-approved 2022/23 budgets irrelevant and left many academy trusts with significant anxieties over their “going concern” status.
In July, Boris Johnson’s leadership collapsed. Tangentially, the war in Ukraine continued to escalate, the energy crisis meant some schools were facing 300% increases in their utility bills, and hyperinflation was now crippling the nation. A summer Conservative leadership election returned the shortest-serving PM in history. Liz Truss was able to meet the Queen just days before her sad passing but managed just 40 days in office. In that time, she managed to add £30 billion to our public debt and sent the financial markets into freefall following her mini-budget. We enjoyed less than two months with yet another education Secretary of State (Kit Malthouse) before once again the Conservatives were forced to elect another leader (Rishi Sunak) and subsequently a new cabinet was formed.
We did receive some relatively positive news in the autumn statement. The unrelenting pressure by the sector and national bodies appeared to cut through and resulted in an unanticipated uplift in funding to the tune of £2 billion for the next two years and an additional £500 million to cover energy costs rises.
It looks likely we will get to the end of the year with some certainty over who our Prime Minster and Education Secretary will be when return in January; even dependable Nick Gibb is back on the education team. What happens longer term is anyone's guess.
Whilst there continues to be some uncertainty about the future, I think there are a few things we should feel optimistic about:
- The pressure to move to school structures some leaders feel unsure about and the imperative to hastily grow as an existing trust appear to have subsided.
- Growth and change will happen but perhaps slightly more organically. There appears to be more government stability now, so we should be able to engage in sensible dialogue with ministers in the new year.
- There has been a new injection of cash into education, and whilst we all know more is needed, this extra funding will certainly help relieve some of the immediate pressure.
- And with the White Paper plans somewhat vulnerable, there is a new opportunity for the sector to help shape the future of our system.
Stephen Morales
